[Salon] Deaths and a decision



Deaths and a decision

Summary: a helicopter crash that killed the president of Iran and his foreign minister and an ICC request for an arrest warrant for the leaders of both Hamas and Israel has caused a heady brew of outrage, celebration, grief and consternation in the Middle East and beyond.

First to the helicopter crash which took the life of President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six others. While Western media speculated on the impact their deaths would have on the ongoing Gaza war and Iran’s other asymmetric warfare exercises via the ‘Axis of Resistance’ in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, Beirut’s L’Orient Today provided an intriguing insight into the close relationship between Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Amirabdollahian.

L’Orient Today’s Olivia Le Poidevin reports that the late Iranian FM was a frequent visitor to Beirut, having met with Nasrallah six times after the 7 October Hamas attack. His most recent visit was less than a month ago. Noting that neither Raisi or Amirabdollahian had much of a hand in directing Iran’s foreign policy – it is ultimately determined by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – she argues that their deaths will not change the direction of travel for Nasrallah in confronting Israel. Though Hezbollah and the IDF exchange fire on Lebanon’s southern border it is a carefully calibrated approach intended to ensure that neither side gets pulled into a ‘second front’ war.

Amirabdollahian’s multiple visits after 7 October may have been designed to reinforce Khamenei’s diktat that Hezbollah not unleash its huge arsenal of missiles, largely supplied by Tehran, to support Hamas. If so the message will have fallen on open ears. The last thing Nasrallah wants is to see the IDF launch an all-out offensive against his forces that are already stretched thin backing Syria’s Assad regime in a civil war that has lasted for 13 years.

Besides, an Israeli onslaught could fatally weaken Nasrallah’s near iron grip over Lebanon. Many in the country resent the power Hezbollah has as as a "state within a failed state" and blame the organisation and its leader for the political paralysis and the economic catastrophe they are suffering under. Underlining just how strong that grip remains though, the country’s caretaker PM Najib Mikati declared three days of mourning, the lowering of flags on all public buildings to half mast and a diet of special programming on tv and radio. Such a display nearly rivals the five days of mourning the Ayatollah decreed for a man known as “the Butcher of Tehran” for his role in the massacre of thousands of political prisoners in the 1980s.

Now to the call by ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan KC to file application for warrants of arrest for three senior Hamas leaders – Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh – and Israeli PM Netanyahu and his defense minister Yoav Gallant. Cue cries of outrage from Washington and Tel Aviv.

President Biden: “outrageous…. and let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas.” Benjamin Netanyahu, as he continues to shift the goal posts as widely as possible in declaiming what constitutes antisemitism: "This is exactly what the new antisemitism looks like, it has moved from the campuses in the West to the court in The Hague. What a shame.”

It is worth noting that neither the US nor Israel have signed the Rome Statute of 1997 that brought the ICC into being. However 124 countries have, including the UK.

Whilst steering away from calling the ICC anti-Semitic, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak took the Biden stance that there was no “moral equivalency between the “terrorist group” Hamas and “a democratic state exercising its lawful right to self defence.” He dismissed the idea that the ICC decision would in any way secure “a pause in the fighting, getting aid into the region, or indeed the hostages out.”

Grant Shapps, the UK defence minister confirmed that the ICC request for warrants would not affect the shipment of weapons to Israel . The minister was seemingly untroubled by the thus far more than 100,000 Palestinian casualties, a figure that includes 35000 dead - the vast majority of which are women and children - killed by the IDF, armed in part by the UK.

Charting a fresh course away from the Tories was the opposition Labour party, regarded by many as the government in waiting. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy: “Labour has been clear throughout this conflict that international law must be upheld, the independence of international courts must be respected, and all sides must be accountable for their actions.”

Karim Khan may have enraged Netanyahu and his Western friends and allies by claiming equivalency but his statement was carefully written and thoughtfully balanced. Regarding Sinwar, Deif and Haniyeh here is part of what he wrote:

My Office submits there are reasonable grounds to believe that SINWAR, DEIF and HANIYEH are criminally responsible for the killing of hundreds of Israeli civilians in attacks perpetrated by Hamas (in particular its military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades) and other armed groups on 7 October 2023 and the taking of at least 245 hostages….

It is the view of my Office that these individuals planned and instigated the commission of crimes on 7 October 2023, and have through their own actions, including personal visits to hostages shortly after their kidnapping, acknowledged their responsibility for those crimes. We submit that these crimes could not have been committed without their actions. They are charged both as co-perpetrators and as superiors pursuant to Articles 25 and 28 of the Rome Statute.

My Office also submits there are reasonable grounds to believe that hostages taken from Israel have been kept in inhumane conditions, and that some have been subject to sexual violence, including rape, while being held in captivity. We have reached that conclusion based on medical records, contemporaneous video and documentary evidence, and interviews with victims and survivors. My Office also continues to investigate reports of sexual violence committed on 7 October.

And regarding Netanyahu and Gallant he wrote:

On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin NETANYAHU, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav GALLANT, the Minister of Defence of Israel, bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 8 October 2023:

  • Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;
  • Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
  • Wilful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
  • Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);
  • Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;
  • Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);
  • Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).

My Office submits that the war crimes alleged in these applications were committed in the context of an international armed conflict between Israel and Palestine, and a non-international armed conflict between Israel and Hamas (together with other Palestinian Armed Groups) running in parallel. We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to State policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day.

It will take weeks if not months before a panel of judges decides if Prosecutor Khan has provided sufficient evidence to issue arrest warrants. If the answer is yes Britain would be obliged under the Rome Statute to arrest the Israeli PM should he come to the UK.

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